Former deep-cover-spy-turned-expert Andrei Bezrukov called for precisely this in summer 2013 before the Ukrainian Crisis derailed his similarly proposed reforms, but they now seem to be making a comeback, and “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” should support them.
By Andrew Korybko
No sooner had new President of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Dmitry Trenin issued his clarion call for correcting foreign policy misperceptions in an interview with leading domestic media, which was republished by RT and analyzed here, that another top expert stepped up to echo him. Ivan Timofeev is RIAC’s Director General, but he’s more well known as one of the programme directors at the Valdai Club, which is a hybrid think tank and expert networking platform that hosts Putin yearly.
He published a detailed article at Valdai about “Russia and Modernization: The Enduring Legacy of Peter the Great”. As the title implies, most of the content is an historical review of that Russian leader’s modernization reforms and their legacy across the centuries, but it contains a stark message in both the introduction and conclusion. In his words, “No matter how we define Russia—as a ‘civilisational state’, a ‘nation-state’, an ‘empire’, or in any other political form—without modernisation, it is doomed to perish.”
He observed that “Russia is simply turning to other sources of modernisation that have emerged outside the West, and applied them domestically. This applies primarily to China. However, interaction with the West itself is also not excluded.” Timofeev is correct in warning that “[Russia] is doomed to perish” without modernization, pointing to China as a new model, and not ruling out cooperating with the West. The first and last points are realities that many “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” (NRPRs) have ignored.
This global community has long extolled the virtues of emulating the Chinese model with Russian characteristics but either naively assumed or dishonestly denied the existential stakes of failing to modernize. Timofeev wrote that “It has become clear that without technical, scientific, and industrial modernisation, maintaining competition (with the West) will be difficult, if not impossible”, which alludes to what was written in the US’ National Defense Strategy that was published earlier this year.
The authors noted that “European NATO dwarfs Russia in economic scale, population, and, thus, latent military power.” The aforesaid just have to be fully unleashed through US incentives and strategic guidance in order to more effectively contain Russia. Timofeev assessed that “[the West’s] consolidation is unprecedented, but not absolute”, though he obviously isn’t taking for granted future irreparable divisions within its ranks and that’s why he’s so urgently calling for far-reaching modernization reforms.
As for the second point that many NRPRs have ignored, economic cooperation with the West, Putin is pursuing exactly this via the resource-centric strategic partnership that his Special Envoy Kirill Dmitriev is negotiating with the US. They doubt its viability, however, usually speculating that either Putin or Trump is “psyching out” the other in order to strategically disarm them. By contrast, Timofeev positively referenced Trump’s proposed cooperation, so it’d be wise to drop the skepticism and take this seriously.
His latest article is so important because of what he calls for, the existential stakes that he highlighted, and that it follows his colleague Trenin calling for correcting foreign policy misperceptions, thus hinting at top Russian experts’ newfound interest in reforms. Former deep-cover-spy-turned-expert Andrei Bezrukov called for precisely this in summer 2013 before the Ukrainian Crisis derailed his similarly proposed reforms, but they now seem to be making a comeback, and NRPRs should support them.
