By Joe Udo
ABUJA (CONVERSEER) – The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, could rise to around N950 per litre in 2026.
The forecast is based on an average crude oil price of $55 per barrel, domestic crude production of 1.5 million barrels per day, and an assumed exchange rate of N1,400/$ in 2026.
Currently, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery sells petrol at N699 per litre at the gantry, with retail prices at authorised distributors like MRS Oil set at N739 per litre.
The CBN said stronger private-sector investment in domestic refining, increased crude production, improved security around oil assets, and expanded refining capacity are expected to help contain energy costs.
These measures, along with competition in the midstream sector, are projected to contribute to a moderation in PMS prices and headline inflation, which is expected to fall to 12.94% in 2026 from an estimated 21.26% in 2025.
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Earlier, Petroleumprice.ng reported that petrol sold for around N900 per litre in many areas before Dangote Refinery cut its ex-gantry rate from N828 to N699 per litre, stabilising pump prices at N739 through its partner MRS Oil. Rival stations also adjusted their prices downward to retain customers.
Dangote Petroleum recently warned that petrol could surge to N1,400 per litre if Nigeria relied heavily on imports again, emphasising that large-scale local production has so far reduced volatility in the downstream market.
